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People will create a black market for them, but it will be really small and die out.
There’s already a black market for tobacco, and it will just grow in size not shrink. You can buy 50g for like £5 on DNMs.
Yeah, the risk is that if the black market becomes large enough, it will mean youths will have easier access to cheaper cigarettes than the current situation (with the added issue of cigarettes being entirely unregulated, meaning they’re going to put God knows what in them).