I have no idea how while Trump is a) ripping out the underpinnings of constitutional law which, in turn, is all that holds up all other laws (including transactional) in the US AND b) ripping apart the post war Western defense alliance leaving Europe and Australia completely exposed and vulnerable AND c) going to impose global reciprocal tariffs, which are going to kill trade and plunge the country and the world into the greatest economic depression (coincidentally) since the 1930’s, how the market isn’t down 75% - 90% by this point. Hopes & Dreams? Hallucinogens? Heroin?
What power on earth is allowing Hedge Funds, Banks and Small Investors the justification to keep betting on an underlying business system which is literally being pulled apart at the seams with no real hope of being functional shortly. How is this happening. It’s like I’m taking crazy pills every day. The market should look at what Trump’s already done (much less what he still promises to do) and say, whoop that’s us, we’re audi, this is insane, we can’t trade our value as a corporation any longer, we don’t know where supplies, labor, administration, distribution, sales, or any law governing any of it stands, we have to pull all our monies out, and put them someplace safe like our pockets.
What is happening to keep the market propped up, when literally everything, everywhere that it needs for stability in projected earnings is being hollowed out beneath it?
edit 2/20 : lol edit 2/21: lol edit 3/3: lol
What power on earth is allowing Hedge Funds, Banks and Small Investors the justification to keep betting on an underlying business system which is literally being pulled apart at the seams …
When you’re a hammer, everything is a nail. That’s all they know how to do, and they still have enough capital to keep doing it.
There are insane mistakes being made multiple times a day now. At some point, the high stakes game of Don’t Break the Ice will come to a sudden end. Putting the cubes back in the game board would require an expenditure of capital. Capitalists spend money to buy more money. The only time they spend money to avoid losing money is when they’ve lost money for a very specific reason multiple times, and maybe not even then.
The visual helped.
There is a economic name for it called a Minsky moment. While I think most of economics is a joke this is one of the only valuable things from the field of economics.
I’m not surprised why big companies no matter what morals they claim(ed) to follow still do business like nothing happened. As long as they can strive for profits and shareholder value they will. Big business is the last place one should look for any sort of backbone.
I’m also surprised why there hasn’t been more of an impact on the stock market. I wouldn’t have expected an immediate drop of 50% or some catastrophic decrease like that. That’s because a lot of the incredibly smart economic policies from stable genius will take time to cut into bottom lines. First prices continue to go up for US consumers, spending will go down, unemployment numbers will go up, and then possibly a recession. Which he will blame on Greenland, I suppose.
Stock markets are legal gambling. As long as the gamblers still have hope they will play. Most will play without hope as well. And Trump 45 was good for them so hope is still very much alive.
At the same time, chainsaw wielding deregulation will help businesses in the US. It may not be great for consumers or the environment but tax breaks are great if you can get them. Melon Usk is not bulldozing any sort of oversight for his business interests or the IRS for no reason.
As for uprooting security alliances I think we will see a move away from US manufactured defense goods pretty soon, maybe starting next year. Europe will concentrate on its own industry more than ever. Even if they don’t find a common position to take in regards to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, they will all look to increase spending locally rather than transatlantically, having hopefully learned that reliance on Washington is futile.
Defense contacts are harder to get rid of than a Tesla though, these things take even longer to show up on Wall Street. I mention Tesla though because numbers came out recently in France and Germany that showed a dramatic drop in new car registrations. I think this development on the micro level will eventually reach macro proportions as well. I am personally waiting for pitchforks being sharpened in Usk’s boardrooms because his doge antics and political statements cut into their bonuses.
Crime. It was crime before, but it’s crime now too.
The people who were supposed to be in charge of preventing the crime didn’t do it before because they were part and party to it, they certainly won’t enforce the laws now.
Because the stock market is pure fantasy that doesn’t have anything to do with the economy?
Because its value was always fictitious.
You expect people to take their money from stocks and put into what exactly?
Putting it in “someplace safe like our pockets” is neither safe, nor something people can do in large numbers. They can put it in bank accounts in large numbers, how safer than stocks do you think those are?
I’m not a financial advisor, so nobody copy this, but we removed all our money from the US over the last few years in preparation. We dont have stocks any more, and our last bit of US money is due to be transferred when our tax return is paid out. I’m cautiously optimistic things will hold until then 🤞
We’ve put most of our money short term into New Zealand banks, specifically term deposits at a few locations, as the financial system here is well insulated at least compared to most countries. Long term we will vary our investment more but we don’t have many options until we are permanent residents (another couple years). It’s a moderate low risk growth, and we are okay with the downsides of it being inaccessible since we have several staggered.
Here term deposits are likely to be frozen short term in the event of a crash by the Open Banking Resolution system, but our everyday funds will be more accessible. Now for a huge market crash, most bets are off, but being in this little island nation, I feel a lot more secure in the fact that society will pull together rather than eat each other. That’s the true benefit of being here: the culture.
not at all, the fdic can’t be trusted any longer, and that’s only up to
100k250k when it was under trustworthy management, and people had the expectation of being made whole by the federal government if their bank failed. yeah, no, there are no safe answers here. this ghost valuation of the market propped up on yesterdays laws of american commerce though, whoof. someday soon somebody somewhere is going to say “the emporer has no clothes” and then it all comes down.FDIC coverage was updated to $250K.
Doesn’t change the current political risks to the program though, i.e. whether or not it will actually pay out to a crashed bank’s account holders.
cheers, thanks for the correction
The state will always bail out the rich (ie themselves) regardless of nominal limits.
The tariffs will trigger a recession for sure. I think the markets are waiting to see what happens with those. A new war in Europe could trigger one as well, but we’d have to see it first. The rest of the things you listed have nothing to do with the stock market.
The stock market holds value because people believe it holds value. There is nothing actually backing any of that up. We dumb monkies just like watching number go up and will ensure number goes up at all costs. It’s how capitalism works.
Meh, party true. Say Coca Cola’s stock goes down, they still own the infrastructure, the products and the brand. In other words, they have real value that didn’t go poof just because their stocks went down.
Much of what we see is bullshit, because bullshit makes headlines. Tesla is a perfect example. This crowd hardly needs a review, but suffice to say that while Tesla has value, it’s tanking fast and the stock price will eventually pop and drop to that far, far lower value.
The stock market is speculative and is not a reflection of reality nor is it a good measure of the health of an economy.
Because this is the Second Business Plot, and this time it worked.
Thats a good comparison to the end result, but he skipped the “get support of the military” step.
He just freed a bunch of criminal paramilitaries, but when push comes to shove, I think they’ll be quickly eliminated by the actual military.
Huh, til
Because the speculative “economy” necessarily grows faster than the actual economy.
As others have said, the stock market has little to do with reality. It’s focused on money and business reports. As long as companies are showing profits, the stock market literally doesn’t care.
Something only hits it when businesses hit it. Look at today’s market. Walmart posted bad futures and the whole market recoiled (only a bit but still).
There’s also just the denial phase. Lots of people, at lots of levels, are dependent on the stock market for their own finances. Literally everyone with a 401k has an interest in the market doing well. Saying “welp, we’re fucked” is just not something that anyone wants to put towards wall street. It’s why we have market “crashes”, because people hold out until the water covers the bow of the sinking shop then they freak out and bail out at the last second.
There’s also just the denial phase.
As evidenced in The Big Short when it was very clear to banks and regulators that the whole mortgage shell game was falling apart and they all refused to act on it.
See, now I have had a few things pegged as being in the denial phase for a while. I’m in Australia, so the housing market I have had pegged to collapse, also I figured we would be heading into a recession coming on 3 years ago and changed businesses to “weather the upcoming recession”
Now while things have cooled off since then, and I still think both elements are overcooked, I obviously moved way to soon.
So my question is, how do you time the denial phase? The housing market issue has been going on for about 30 years from what I can tell (though it got more reasonable for half a minute a bit over a decade ago and then went stupid again).
In my lifetime, and I’m 40 now, I haven’t seen a proper major correction where bad decisions and greed was punished. I should have been “taking stupid risks” the entire time and I would have been just fine.
I don’t have an answer to any of your questions and I don’t think many others will either. It seems like one of those things that you look back at with the clarity of hindsight in order to map things out.
I mean that’s part of the thing right? “Who dares wins” is a great mantra until you lose. Nobody can predict the future so a lot of times the greed carries out until it’s literally irreversible. That’s why it’s so important to have people on the other end defending from the greed, from the people that will hoard and take until they die on their pile of gold.
At least for the US there is always a feeling of doom and worry and “it’s going to pop” but until it actually does, the greed will continue to take. That’s part of the system for better or worse. It can’t be stopped, but defending the people from the repercussions of that greed is what we have to do.
There’s always someone that will try to bring too much on the lifeboat. Rules are needed to stop them from sinking the whole ship.
Look up how IBM, Coca Cola and Volkswagen (among many, many other companies that are very much still established to this day) got their boom-times during WW2 by supporting both the allies and the fash at the same time. They profited from everything that happened, in every way, and continue to do so.
Fascism is good for business, so to speak.
IBM, Coca Cola were offered on the American Stock Exchange you potted plant, not the Nazi stock exchange, and Volkswagen was using Jewish slave labor at Auschwitz to make their cars, what the fuck are you talking about. Fascism isn’t good for business, it’s always destructive. The American Stock exchange still governed by sanity and the underlying business law back by the Constitution functioned as it should during WW2, not the fucking Nazi stock exchange, jesus fuck
You really seem to know what you’re talking about so I probably don’t have to link you to the article about Fanta which Coca-Cola (as you say, listed on the US Stock Exchange) made the “drink of the nazis” and profited bigtime from.
IBM had major contracts with the nazis and developed some of the earliest rudimentary card computing tech to keep track of all the interred jews in the camps. I bet you knew that as well. IBM wouldn’t be around today without those contracts and that early tech (and the money it brought in).
What the actual fuck do you have against potted plants that you would use that as an insult anyway.
This thread made me chuckle. My thanks to both of you.
I think economy, in the sense of money as a concept, is an illusion. We all just agree that money is worth something. When our belief in the American Dollar fails, so would follow any stocks tied up in businesses that rely upon it. Those trillions and tax cuts that Musk has? Worthless.
shrug
That is my hypothesis, anyways. My guess is that we are into a Weimer Germany sort of scenario. I have been converting my money into Euros, with the assumption that America as we knew it is going to die horribly within years. Hopefully, my efforts are pragmatic, not paranoid. 😕
I have been converting my money into Euros, with the assumption that America as we knew it is going to die horribly within years. Hopefully, my efforts are pragmatic, not paranoid. 😕
Hopefully, your efforts are paranoid, not pragmatic.
(Not blaming you for how you’re coping/preparing, just not personally ready to give up on our country yet) The past is useful because history rhymes, but the future isn’t written in stone
More than fair. It would be nice to rub the back of my neck and feel embarrassed for overreacting. Here’s hoping your timeline is what happens.
How big are the odds that the billions (later corrected to millions) of saving (a single day of borrowing btw) they did are competent and not a fascist hyper capitalist dictatorship rising?
Stock market is basically meme gambling these days no different from crypto. Its not a reliable indicator of anything.
