If they don’t control most of the nodes in-between they can control all the exit nodes they want. If you connect though 3 Tor nodes, as soon as one of them is not controlled by them they likely can’t identify you.

That’s not to say that they don’t control most of the nodes, and your traffic likely goes through NSA nodes exclusively

The CIA, not the NSA. Tor is a great way for agents deployed abroad to phone home with plausible deniability: “I’m sorry Mr. Chinese Officer, I got homesick and really wanted to watch some BBW porn…”