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It’s not even politics, It’s just math. NATO has superiority in economy, industrial output, operational equipment and manpower.
Plus they’re too close to Russia for asymmetric warfare rules.
I would bet on it, but I’d sure as hell wish we could all get along instead.
The asymmetric warfare will probably occur in other places around the world. There’s many places to pick. 800 military bases around the world that are vulnerable. The industrial output favours the Russians.